This post will also be found in Tehachapi's The Loop Newspaper.
Things have been happening here on
Earth for around four billion years. Most of the things that have
happened during that time were unobserved. And for most of the things
that have happened that have been observed, no one has bothered to
note them down.
But even with observation we can't be
guaranteed that what gets written done is what really happened. There
is the famous psychology experiment where students are watching some
activity on a screen, such as people passing a basketball around. The
students are asked to focus on one aspect of the action, such as the
number of passes of the ball. Then in the middle of the film a person
in a gorilla suit comes in and does something then goes off the
screen. Typically at least half of the students never see the
gorilla.
I always figured that I would have
spotted the gorilla, but a few months ago there was a show on one of
the science type channels where they did a very similar experiment
with the audience. I never saw the guy in the penguin suit walk
across the stage. So despite my conviction that I'd do better (I did
on some of the other experiments on the show) I was not a good
eyewitness.
So when we focus on one thing we can
easily lose sight of all manner of other things. And all too often
history has had a very limited focus. The activities of great men.
And it was mostly men. But the vast majority of what goes on in any
time are things that were never recorded.
Someone may have written down what was
served at some feast, but we'll never know what happened among the
cooks who prepared it. But using science, like archeology, covering
even recent periods we can learn more about how people lived. We can
combine the things we have recorded with observations of artifacts so
we can have a better idea of what really did happen.
And many of our sciences are
historical. Meaning that we apply methods from science to study
things that weren't actually observed. Astronomy is a “historical”
science. Paleontology, geography, evolutionary biology and
climatology are also. Some may claim that these aren't as good a kind
of science as the experimental kind, where you make hypotheses and
test them in the lab.
But these “historical” sciences
are still based on hypotheses and testing. We just have to go out and
find observations that agree or disagree with what we've
hypothesized. And if the new observations are not consistent we must
give up our hypothesis.
But for many a hypothesis is a very
hard thing to let go of. And these hypotheses can create the kind of
focus that makes it so easy to miss the guy in the six foot tall
penguin suit marching past us. But that's a place that other people
can help us out. When you discuss your hypotheses with others,
somebody is going to notice the penguin. Then we can start to come to
grips with what is really historical.
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